Betting Advice for 8.13.2021
6 min readAug 13, 2021
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Hello, Sports Bettors!
Happy Friday the 13th! The only thing that’s scary about this newsletter is our mentioning of how much Kawhi Leonard will be making by remaining as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers. 4 years/$176.3M
Today we’re discussing:
- An Extensive Look at NBA Futures + Longshots
- NBA Summer League News + Betting Analysis
- Action in the MLB, Bet or Pass?
NBA FUTURES: GO BIG OR GO HOME
- The more I look at the NBA futures markets, it’s incredible how much action is available right now.
- We can bet on MVP, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, and countless other individual and team related plays.
- After analyzing the board, I’ve come up with several longshot plays I believe are worth looking at.
- Generally the definition of a longshot is up for debate, but for me it’s a play getting at least 20 to 1 odds on the payout.
- For these wild longshots, we are generally targeting guys who were pretty good last season, but are now in a position to potentially be an All-Star or an All-NBA 1st team candidate.
- So, in the classic words of George Costanza, let’s get nuts!
- Longshot #1: Zion Williamson to win MVP +4000
- The main things going against Zion here are the fact that he’s on a pretty bad team, and that he’s going to need eye popping numbers on offense to win this.
- Last season he averaged 27 points on 61% shooting, with only 30% usage.
- I’m not convinced it will happen, but if he becomes more of a focal point on offense, he could certainly average at least 30 points and 10 rebounds per game.
- He has the tools and talent to break out even further, and when you’re getting 40 to 1 on your money, you want to go for high upside players.
- Longshot #2: Stephen Silas to win Coach of the Year +5500
- The Houston Rockets head coach had a rough time of it last season, with his team finishing 17–55, good enough for the dead last worst record in the NBA.
- What most people don’t realize is that even after the trade of James Harden, the Rockets were 11–10 at one point, and had just won 7 out of 8 games.
- Unfortunately, Christian Wood got injured for about 6 weeks right after that, and with him went any hopes of making the playoffs.
- With Wood healthy now, plus the addition of Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and a few other solid draft picks, the Rockets may surprise some people this season.
- If Silas can simply get the youthful Rockets into the playoffs, he has a legitimate shot of cashing you a 55 to 1 ticket.
- Longshot #3: Kyle Kuzma to win Most Improved Player +4000
- Generally we want to bet on players who are moving from a poor situation to put up big numbers, to excellent situations to do so.
- Kuzma fits the bill here, as he moves from a bench role player on the Lakers, to the Wizards, where he may be a #2 or #3 option on offense behind Bradley Beal and Spencer Dinwiddie.
- Last season, he averaged 12.9 points with only 20% usage and 28 minutes per game.
- This season he could average something closer to 20 points, possibly more as he is not shy about shooting, and the Wizards play at a much faster pace than the Lakers do.
- Even if the Wizards stink it up as a team, all we need is Kuzma to put up big numbers, and he’s got a shot.
- Longshot #4: Cameron Payne to win Most Improved Player +13000
- While Payne is still Chris Paul’s backup for the most part, I expect him to take a more active role in the rotation next season.
- Unfortunately, he was relegated to only playing 18 minutes per game last season but still managed to put up 8.4 points and 3.6 assists.
- Admittedly, it would take a lot to go wrong for the Suns to start Payne playing 30 minutes a game, but if that happens, look out.
- He’s a very good actual player on both ends, and can also fill up the box score. At 130 to 1 odds, why not?
👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.
NBA SUMMER LEAGUE NEWS + BETTING ANALYSIS
- To recap yesterday’s plays, the 76ers covered the -4 against the Hawks, but it did take overtime to do so.
- Unsurprisingly, Tyrese Maxey took over for the Sixers, putting up 31 points and 5 assists. Look for him to be involved in the rotation in the regular season.
- The Blazers continue to take a “unique approach”, starting Kenneth Faried and Michael Beasley, veterans who haven’t played in the NBA in 2 years.
- Not surprisingly, the Blazers got absolutely destroyed, losing to the Pacers by 31. Watch to see if the Blazers make sensible adjustments, because their current team is BAD on defense.
- PREFERRED PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks +3.5
- The Timberwolves are hot off a 78–59 thrashing of the Bulls, but how will they decide to play on the 2nd leg of a back to back?
- Jaden McDaniels played 31 minutes, with 32 for Jaylen Nowell, significant because both players are rotation players for the Wolves during the NBA regular season.
- The status of these two (especially McDaniels) is key, since this game should be closer to a pick em if both end up resting.
- Either way, I like a fresh Bucks team with Jordan Nwora and Theo Pinson playing well.
- Again, there are exceptions, but for the most part we should be looking to take the points on a neutral court with a ton of unknown players.
👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.
MLB WORLD SERIES FUTURES: BET OR PASS?
New York Mets to win the World Series +1600
- The Mets should be a near lock to make the playoffs, the question is how much noise can they make once they get in?
- Noah Syndergaard is expected back soon, where he will be used as a relief pitcher.
- The Mets also made a nice acquisition of Javy Baez over the trade deadline, and just added veteran outfielder Josh Reddick.
- The elephant in the room is the status of Jacob DeGrom, who is expected to have an MRI soon.
- If the MRI turns up clean and DeGrom is back on the mound in a couple of weeks, this is a BET for me at 16 to 1 odds.
- They’ve been a solid team even with some major injuries, and if they can get everyone healthy prior to the playoffs, I like their chances with DeGrom.
👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.
TODAY’S SPORTS TRIVIA
- Who was the first WNBA player to dunk in a playoff game??
- Answer: Brittney Griner
- Who was the first-ever NBA player to score 2,000 points in a single season?
- Answer: George Yardly
