Betting Advice for 8.13.2021

Hello, Sports Bettors!

Happy Friday the 13th! The only thing that’s scary about this newsletter is our mentioning of how much Kawhi Leonard will be making by remaining as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers. 4 years/$176.3M

Today we’re discussing:

  • An Extensive Look at NBA Futures + Longshots
  • NBA Summer League News + Betting Analysis
  • Action in the MLB, Bet or Pass?

NBA FUTURES: GO BIG OR GO HOME

  • The more I look at the NBA futures markets, it’s incredible how much action is available right now.
  • We can bet on MVP, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, and countless other individual and team related plays.
  • After analyzing the board, I’ve come up with several longshot plays I believe are worth looking at.
  • Generally the definition of a longshot is up for debate, but for me it’s a play getting at least 20 to 1 odds on the payout.
  • For these wild longshots, we are generally targeting guys who were pretty good last season, but are now in a position to potentially be an All-Star or an All-NBA 1st team candidate.
  • So, in the classic words of George Costanza, let’s get nuts!
  • Longshot #1: Zion Williamson to win MVP +4000
  • The main things going against Zion here are the fact that he’s on a pretty bad team, and that he’s going to need eye popping numbers on offense to win this.
  • Last season he averaged 27 points on 61% shooting, with only 30% usage.
  • I’m not convinced it will happen, but if he becomes more of a focal point on offense, he could certainly average at least 30 points and 10 rebounds per game.
  • He has the tools and talent to break out even further, and when you’re getting 40 to 1 on your money, you want to go for high upside players.
  • Longshot #2: Stephen Silas to win Coach of the Year +5500
  • The Houston Rockets head coach had a rough time of it last season, with his team finishing 17–55, good enough for the dead last worst record in the NBA.
  • What most people don’t realize is that even after the trade of James Harden, the Rockets were 11–10 at one point, and had just won 7 out of 8 games.
  • Unfortunately, Christian Wood got injured for about 6 weeks right after that, and with him went any hopes of making the playoffs.
  • With Wood healthy now, plus the addition of Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and a few other solid draft picks, the Rockets may surprise some people this season.
  • If Silas can simply get the youthful Rockets into the playoffs, he has a legitimate shot of cashing you a 55 to 1 ticket.
  • Longshot #3: Kyle Kuzma to win Most Improved Player +4000
  • Generally we want to bet on players who are moving from a poor situation to put up big numbers, to excellent situations to do so.
  • Kuzma fits the bill here, as he moves from a bench role player on the Lakers, to the Wizards, where he may be a #2 or #3 option on offense behind Bradley Beal and Spencer Dinwiddie.
  • Last season, he averaged 12.9 points with only 20% usage and 28 minutes per game.
  • This season he could average something closer to 20 points, possibly more as he is not shy about shooting, and the Wizards play at a much faster pace than the Lakers do.
  • Even if the Wizards stink it up as a team, all we need is Kuzma to put up big numbers, and he’s got a shot.
  • Longshot #4: Cameron Payne to win Most Improved Player +13000
  • While Payne is still Chris Paul’s backup for the most part, I expect him to take a more active role in the rotation next season.
  • Unfortunately, he was relegated to only playing 18 minutes per game last season but still managed to put up 8.4 points and 3.6 assists.
  • Admittedly, it would take a lot to go wrong for the Suns to start Payne playing 30 minutes a game, but if that happens, look out.
  • He’s a very good actual player on both ends, and can also fill up the box score. At 130 to 1 odds, why not?

👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.

NBA SUMMER LEAGUE NEWS + BETTING ANALYSIS

  • To recap yesterday’s plays, the 76ers covered the -4 against the Hawks, but it did take overtime to do so.
  • Unsurprisingly, Tyrese Maxey took over for the Sixers, putting up 31 points and 5 assists. Look for him to be involved in the rotation in the regular season.
  • The Blazers continue to take a “unique approach”, starting Kenneth Faried and Michael Beasley, veterans who haven’t played in the NBA in 2 years.
  • Not surprisingly, the Blazers got absolutely destroyed, losing to the Pacers by 31. Watch to see if the Blazers make sensible adjustments, because their current team is BAD on defense.
  • PREFERRED PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks +3.5
  • The Timberwolves are hot off a 78–59 thrashing of the Bulls, but how will they decide to play on the 2nd leg of a back to back?
  • Jaden McDaniels played 31 minutes, with 32 for Jaylen Nowell, significant because both players are rotation players for the Wolves during the NBA regular season.
  • The status of these two (especially McDaniels) is key, since this game should be closer to a pick em if both end up resting.
  • Either way, I like a fresh Bucks team with Jordan Nwora and Theo Pinson playing well.
  • Again, there are exceptions, but for the most part we should be looking to take the points on a neutral court with a ton of unknown players.

👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.

MLB WORLD SERIES FUTURES: BET OR PASS?

New York Mets to win the World Series +1600

  • The Mets should be a near lock to make the playoffs, the question is how much noise can they make once they get in?
  • Noah Syndergaard is expected back soon, where he will be used as a relief pitcher.
  • The Mets also made a nice acquisition of Javy Baez over the trade deadline, and just added veteran outfielder Josh Reddick.
  • The elephant in the room is the status of Jacob DeGrom, who is expected to have an MRI soon.
  • If the MRI turns up clean and DeGrom is back on the mound in a couple of weeks, this is a BET for me at 16 to 1 odds.
  • They’ve been a solid team even with some major injuries, and if they can get everyone healthy prior to the playoffs, I like their chances with DeGrom.

👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.

TODAY’S SPORTS TRIVIA

  • Who was the first WNBA player to dunk in a playoff game??
  • Answer: Brittney Griner
  • Who was the first-ever NBA player to score 2,000 points in a single season?
  • Answer: George Yardly

👉 To get access to ALL our projections and proven models, try Line Sniper Plus, here.

Enjoy today’s games and, as always…

Here’s to making smarter, more profitable bets,

- RD

Red Dave
Analyst, Line Sniper

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