Bet or Pass: Correlated Parlays

SPORTS BETTING SCIENCE: CORRELATED PARLAYS

  • If you’ve been following this newsletter for a few months, you’ve probably seen some examples of correlated parlays presented here.
  • For those who aren’t up to speed, a correlated parlay is one in which one leg of the parlay is correlated to the other leg of the parlay.
  • E.g. if we like a college football team -31 on the point spread and the total is 56, it makes sense to parlay the favorite to the over.
  • The logic is relatively straightforward, many of the times our team covers the 31, they’re going to score a ton of points and the total will sail over 56.
  • In MLB, most of the correlated parlays I like are with the road team laying -1.5 runs or on the money line, parlayed with the over.
  • If our road team enters the 9th inning with a lead, it is a guarantee that the home team gets to bat in the bottom of the 9th, which gives us a better shot of hitting the over.
  • Inversely, if we like the under on a game, we should consider parlaying it with the home team.
  • When the home team enters the 9th with a lead and shuts the opposing team down, they don’t get to bat in the bottom of the 9th, thus increasing the chances of the under hitting.
  • Now for my favorite correlated parlay of all (provided your sportsbook allows it)…
  • NFL 1st half correlated parlays, primarily a big favorite parlayed to the over.
  • In the NFL, the best teams almost always try to run up the score in the first half no matter what. This means they will play no-huddle or up tempo pace.
  • In the 2nd half, they’re likely to slow the game down if up 28–3 or something like that, simply trying to milk the clock to avoid any injuries or unnecessary externalities that might jeopardize their lead.
  • If you’re looking ahead to week 1 of the NFL season, a classic correlated parlay is the Tampa Bucs -6.5 against the Dallas Cowboys, parlayed to the over 51.

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